Financing my first "flip" along with some stock picks

Posted by TheNightTrader on Thursday, December 11, 2008 at 11:55 PM

To give a little background I'm getting geared up to do my first house "flip" (I use this term lightly as it will be a 2yr process). I've always loved remodeling work, and have had a decent amount of experience. Now that my wife and I are ready for a house I figure we might as well get something that needs some work. The hope is to find a depressed property, and then use my 3 weeks of saved vacation to beat out the major issues before we move in. The rest we can work on over the next 2 years before we sell and move to Colorado. Or so goes the plan :-).

Tomorrow I have an appointment with Bank of the West to see what they can offer me in the way of a home mortgage. I need something that either has a low down-payment requirement, or the ability to finance the house and repairs in one loan. I really wish the tax credit could be received up front, but so far that hasn't been changed. There is some talks of raising the cap and allowing it to be used at closing, but I'm not going to base any plans on that. We have some money saved up, but we'll need a chunk of money to make the needed repairs before move-in. If we could get the house and repairs rolled into one loan that would be ideal I think. And then just make a $7,500 payment against the principle when the tax credit comes to get our payments down.

Another thing I'm still trying to decide is whether or not to just do an interest-only loan. That is typical practice for "flippers" since the property won't be owned long enough to really make even a dent in the principle anyways. The money could be better used by investing it back into the property repairs, and helping build equity that way. The risk is that we end up living in the house longer than we planned and have to refinance. I don't feel comfortable going all the way to a 5/1 ARM, but I'm thinking a 30yr fixed interest-only type loan might work well, without quite as much risk.

Some people would say I'm crazy (you know who you are ;-)), but we will see what the bank will give me tomorrow. I know credit has been getting harder and harder to find, but the Wichita market is still doing very well in comparison. Since this is my first house purchase I'm not terribly familiar with getting a mortgage. Is it usually worthwhile to meet with a couple of banks before picking one and getting pre-approved? I've heard that getting pre-approved at multiple banks can ding your credit score from the barrage of credit checks. Is that true?


Recent Activity
None

Potential Trades
I don't have any available trading cash at the moment, so these are suggestions for anyone who wants them.
FWLT May 25P/30C or 20P/35C - This stock has been swinging about $10 withing the bollinger bands and just bounced off the upper. For ~$7 the 20P/35C is pretty affordable. I almost have enough free cash to do this one, but not quite.
OXY Apr 55P/60C - This one looks really good if you can swing the $20.00 cost. None of the wider strikes had enough open interest. This stock has been channeling between about $42 and $55 and appears to be turning back down from the upper bollinger.

Updates
AMZN looks like it's reversing for another ride down. I don't think it's worth legging out of the call since it's only worth $0.70 at this point. The small amount I would gain on a large drop doens't really justify the risk and commissions. Just have to ride it out and hope it drops fast and far.

FDX is on a support trendline and near the lower bollinger band. It's finally gotten some volatility, so I just might make it out of this one with my shirt :-). Today it didn't really drop until the last couple hours of trading. Earlier in the day it kept trying to push up and almost legged out of the put at one point. Just have to keep a close eye on this one. I am actually reasonably profitable on the put with this one. Still close to 40% in the trade overall though.

SLB still seems to be channeling between the 10-day moving average and the lower bollinger band. It just bounced off the 10-day, so maybe this trip down I'll finally at least hit break even.

MS and GS both are at a slight loss on both the call and put. They've also got a lot of time left, so I'm not really doing much of anything with them right now. Just let them do their thing.

Our car is becoming a money-hungry beast

Posted by TheNightTrader on Tuesday, December 9, 2008 at 6:59 PM

So far this week we have a rebuilt transmission (thankfully covered under warranty since it was rebuilt in February) and 4 new tires ($490). Still to come are new front brakes and rotors (~$50 for parts), new belt ($20), and an alignment ($60) ... as well as the $1000 medical deductible whenever insurance gets their act together. When it rains it pours I guess! It's frustrating, but I'm so thankful for our financial planning that has kept this from being a disaster. Overall it ends up just being a major annoyance for being without a car, and spending money that wasn't planned.

I was planning on getting a couple new tires this month, and the other two in a couple months. But when my wife got to my workplace to drop off my forgotten cell, I discovered a flat tire. Like totally flat and flopping on the rim :-o! "It just felt funny" Ummm, yeah!! Thankfully the tire store I always use was right across the street, so I left work and limped it over there on the flat without hurting my rim any.

Now the delima ... do I buy 2 cheap tires at full price, or go ahead and get 3 performance tires like normal, and get the 4th free. I really needed all 4 soon, especially with winter upon us, and getting 4 performance tires now with the sale was only $40 more overall than getting 2 cheapo tires now and 2 later. So I now have 4 - 70K mile performance tires on my car. In the process of getting the tires changed they alerted me to the need for new front brakes (the outside pad looked fine, but the inner pad had 2mm left), and a chunk missing from my serpentine belt. One of the front rotors doesn't have enough left to turn it, so I'll have to get a new one. At least I can do all the work myself tomorrow night.

I had already saved back $210 in our car repair fund, so that's decent amount toward the repairs. The rest will either have to come from house savings (just when we were going to meet our $4,500 goal at the end of this month), or the emergency fund. Either way we're blessed to not have to put anything on a credit card :). Stuff happens, so that's why you better plan for it.


Recent Activity
None

Updates
FDX dropped like a rock today on back earnings previews. And just when I was starting to turn a profit on the upside too :-(. It dropped so far overnight that there wasn't any way to salvage my gains on the call. Just have to see if it bounces or continues the plug tomorrow.

AMZN had a nice run this morning, but just couldn't hold above the 50 moving average. It's showing some signs of weakness, so I'm ready to leg out if it drops off.

The rest of my open plays aren't really doing much of anything newsworthy. Just as an update, these are my current positions:
- AAPL Apr 190C
- AMZN Jan 40P/65C
- FDX Jan 60P/80C
- GS Apr 55P/80C
- MS Apr 15P/20C
- SLB Jan 55P/65C

Waiting for the markets to pick a direction ...

Posted by TheNightTrader on Thursday, December 4, 2008 at 9:18 PM

I got a 4 day weekend to "catch up", but still feel stressed and out of time. My project at work is supposed to be finishing up a phase this week, and I'm lagging behind so I'm getting wound a little tight about that. Which means I've been working extra hours, and haven't had the time I'd like to stay on top of the markets and blogging :-(. To top it all off my January (expiration) strangles are slowly strangling themselves, so that's a little discouraging. But enough whining ...

What has also been taking a lot of time the last few days is setting up my new MacBook Pro :-). So far I LOVE it! It's going to take a while to get everything all setup and optimized, but so far it's coming together. I never realized just how much crap I use on my computer until now! And yes I'm a total geek and perfectionist, so I'm writing scripts and all kinds of crazy stuff to make it "just right". :-)


Recent Activity
12/4
Bought GS Apr 55P/80C - 1 contract for $21.15
- Entered limit sell order for $23.40 (~10% net profit)

Updates
My strangles that have January expiration are still looking pretty wilty. The stocks have been moving again finally, but in the wrong direction for my trades. The P/L graph for a long strangle is a U shape where you lose the most money if the stock stays put, and then your profits go up as you move either way. As the stocks have been cautiously rising my profits have been sliding down the left "arm" of the U. If they keep moving up I might be able to turn a profit in the other direction, but I don't see that a terribly likely. If the markets turn back down, they better do it soon or I'm afraid it will be too late.

Trades closed in November

Posted by TheNightTrader on Tuesday, December 2, 2008 at 9:15 PM

I should have posted this sometime this past weekend, but it was a holiday. And to top all that craziness off the transmission went out in my car late Saturday night :-(, and I got my new MackBook Pro yesterday :-). So I have not been sitting around getting bored to say the least.

This is a list of ALL trades I closed during the month of November. I list both realized and unrealized gains since there are trades currently open in both accounts. The month of November was extremely slow, which is in stark contrast from October where I was trading like crazy. The markets aren't maintaining any single direction for more that a few days at best, so strangles are not the best trade to be playing. No realized losses for November, but I'm afraid there's going to be some big ones this month :-/.


Account 1
11/3 - RIMM Mar 35P/60C - Net profit $196.40 (10.10%)
11/24 - GS Apr 40P/65C - Net profit $223.20 (9.96%)
Total profits realized in November $419.60 (5.94%)

Account 2
No trades closed in November
Total profits realized in November $0 (0%)

Ending account values
Account1 - $6,446.25 $5,852.25 (Realized/unrealized loss of 9.21%)
Account2 - $1,505.64 (Realized/unrealized loss of 17.96%)